According to international practice, the authority of the market hot spot forecast every year. Below we will study and judge the issues of general concern to the market. Of course, since the world is full of uncertainties, it remains to be tested in practice whether this will be the case at that time. Because, even famous international financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, sometimes their forecasts of the world economy will be "surprised".

 

Conjecture 1

 

World toy market expected to recover

 

For many Chinese toy export enterprises, 2021 is a very difficult year for operation. Some enterprises think that the degree of difficulty is even more serious than that of the world economic crisis in 2008. Guangdong is China's largest toy export province. The research report submitted by the Guangdong Toy Association to the government pointed out that in 2021, enterprises generally reported a 25% decrease in overseas orders. And this conclusion is also confirmed in the quarterly performance reports of listed toy companies. For example, overseas orders of a listed company in the first three quarters fell by double digits year-on-year.

 

Some people are confused: although enterprises reflect a general decrease in overseas orders, according to customs export statistics, the export value of China's ordinary toys (tariff 9503 commodity series) increased by 5.8 year-on-year last year, which does not seem to be a bad situation. However, if you are a member of the Guangdong Toy Association, you will not be confused, because the Guangdong Toy Association has already sent a research report to its members, and the analysis points out that it is caused by the increase in the unit price of the product. In fact, in the first three quarters of 2021, the number of Guangdong toy products exported to Europe and the United States fell sharply by 29.38 and 14.4 respectively. However, this situation may improve in 2022. There are two reasons: First, according to past experience, the European and American toy markets often experience retaliatory growth after sales bottomed out. One of the reasons is obviously that toy manufacturers need to replenish inventory to increase purchases. The second is that various situations indicate that the European and American economies will recover steadily in 2022 if there is no accident, which will drive market demand for toys. Zhou Qiliang, vice president of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, is optimistic that the total value of Hong Kong's toy exports is expected to grow by 4% this year.

 

Based on the analysis of all parties, we have reason to be optimistic that the world toy market in 2022 will be better than that in 2021, and the life of toy export enterprises will gradually improve.